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Dollar Remains Lower as Government Impasse Continues and Other Top Forex News

The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday, as the government shutdown continued for a fourth day, with no sign of a breakthrough. There was no data released today due to the shutdown. The U.S. Labor Department was scheduled to report today, but said yesterday that Septembers report will not be released as normal and failed to set a new release date. Markets are also concerned how the U.S. political deadlock will impact negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

Speaking overnight, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said the failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling could hurt the global economy and warned U.S. growth could drop below 2% this year. Separately, Standard & Poor’s rating agency said the standoff over funding the government and increasing the borrowing limit is “unlikely to change” S&P’s AA plus rating on U.S. debt. During the U.S. session, the dollar initially fell against the yen, but rallied later in the session, with USD/JPY closing up 0.15% to 97.42.

The yen was further supported after the Bank of Japan held back from adding to its monetary stimulus program after Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the economy was strong enough to weather a sales-tax increase. The news disappointed markets who had been expecting a more aggressive stance from the bank. Meanwhile the euro gave up some of yesterdays gains against the dollar, as investors locked in profits after the single currency rallied to eight-month highs on Thursday.

The single currencies was further hampered after official data showed that producer price inflation in Germany hit a three year low, falling 0.1% in August, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.1% slip the previous month. EUR/USD ended the session down 0.43% to 1.3560. In Canada, the Loonie strengthened after the release of data which showed that the Ivey purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.9 in September, from a reading of 51.0 the previous month, confounding expectations for a rise to 53.0. USD/CAD edging down 0.35% to 1.0296.

Elsewhere, the greenback was broadly lower against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, with AUD/USD gaining 0.42% to 0.9434 and NZD/USD rising 0.45% to 0.8330. - See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/10/04/dollar-remains-lower-government-impasse-continues-top-forex-news/#sthash.z8Qp3wZs.dpuf
 

Top Trade Idea For October 4th, 2013 – EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD “Could Fluctuate”

Are any other traders sick of analysts whose view is that a currency “could fluctuate”? When you read or hear “on the one hand…..but on the other hand” the response has to be “thanks Einstein”, because what the analyst is really saying is that they have no clue, or no cojones – or both. However, traders don’t need a directional view to trade where they recognise a good reward to risk set up. The EUR/AUD 4-hour chart is a current example:


Traders will select their own indicator or signal, but I like to keep it simple. Here’s a 186 pip trading range, with a clearly defined inflection point at 1.4450. Frankly, I’m hoping EUR/AUD stays range bound for weeks, as every time it crosses the midpoint it fulfils my trading plan – a clearly defined signal, with a tight stop and a higher reward to risk ratio. With the pair breaking below 1.4450, I sell at 1.4445, with a stop loss at 1.4464, target 1.4375 (not too greedy).

Reward to risk is 70/19, or better than 3.5/1. The real beauty is if this trade pays off, and the support at 1.4366 holds, there’s another trade as EUR/AUD crosses or fails at the inflection point at 1.4450. Happy days! - See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/10/04/top-trade-idea-october-4th-2013-euraud/#sthash.IZX0Texw.dpuf
 
The JPY had a very active Asian session and began to pull back hard in the UK session.  After it bounced at the previous day's Asian session low (Hint) an entry is found.  The stop loss was 14 pips and the idea was to get to the Asian session high for a retest.  As price moves up, we remove any risk from the trade and protect some profits.  This is critical to your trading success and peace of mind as a trader.  When price bounced off our Target 2, we close the trade to lock in our gains.  Price subsequently tests the Asian session high without us.


The AUD set up nicely 15 minutes after the JPY entry, for a nice short to its Asian session low.   Once the JPY started to move up, a theme of USD strength was apparent and the majors moved accordingly with the exception of the CHF which unusually had a very quiet session.

In trading the 15 minute chart, stops of 15 - 25 pips are my norm at current ranges.  Any trade setup requiring a stop loss of less than 15 pips is very desirable.  When trading ranges expand again, a stop loss of 30 pips is possible, but I haven't had one that large for some time.  When price starts moving in your favour, remember to protect some profit in the event of a sudden reversal.  Never fight the market - you will lose.  Study it!  Go with it - never against it.  If it moves against your analysis, your stop loss is your friend.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
An overall theme of USD weakness was evident throughout today's trading.  The EUR, GBP and CHF took off without us.  With the NZD having a much larger negative Trade Balance than expected, I was curious to see if I could find a reversal trade and ride it to the Asian session high or higher.

The pair eventually set up - consistent with the USD weakness theme that prevailed.  An entry long is taken - allowing for a 17 pip stop loss and a potential 81 pips to our Target 2.  This is a very attractive reward for the risk.  The first level to get through was the Asian session high and alas we couldn't do it.  At the close of UK session, we exit for a modest gain.


It's frustrating seeing some pairs move right to our targets without being able to find an entry, but discipline is key to trading success.  One of my mentors always says, "master your tools, master yourself".

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
A fairly light news session to begin our trading week.  The JPY moved down after an initial surge higher as the UK traders trapped breakout longs and stopped them out.  After a bearish reversal candle, and lower high, a short entry is taken.  The stop loss is 13 pips for a possible 74 pips to our Target 2.  This a great Reward to Risk ratio and stops of 15 pips or less are very attractive to us.

Price moved down but stopped short of the Asian session low and the trade is closed after the wicky candle reversal.  Price pulled back one more time making a third lower high for the session, then dropped once again without us.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The AUD continues down retracing the post FOMC reaction.

Once again as the UK session gets underway, there are no buyers above the Asian session high.  Price begins to move down and penetrates the Asian session low.  We wait for a retracement and find an entry with a Reward to Risk of greater than 3:1 to our Target 2.  There is no significant US economic news that we need to be concerned about.  Price makes its way down to our Target 1, where it bounces and we close the trade.

Grain farmers in the US years ago are attributed with discovering what is known as the 3 Drives Pattern.  This is a frequently reoccurring pattern where we see 3 waves, either to the high or low on a chart.  The idea for trading it is to catch the second wave which is often the largest of the 3 drives.  It can be visible on all time frames and is fun to recognize and trade.  It is by no means crystal clear and does not always work, but it can be fun to spot.


Whatever your trading style may be... find your edge, keep it simple, manage risk and be consistent.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Back on Tuesday if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
After the FOMC announcement, the AUD moved up and today it moved back down.  It's good to be aware of the fundamentals, but it's more important to be able to read price, and exercise sound money management.  This involves limiting risk with small stop losses and ideally a Reward to Risk ratio of 2:1 or better - depending on the time of day.

Looking at this particular setup, it was clear that you did not want to be a buyer above the Asian session highs.  There were only sellers above, and after 3 attempts to move higher, price dropped.  With such a large reactive move after the FOMC announcement, I thought the move down would penetrate the pre-FOMC Asian session before stagnating.

It was not long ago that the AUD was worth 1.06 to the USD and even 1.08.  It has a pretty good trading range at the moment, so I will be keeping my eyes on it.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

 
 
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