The EUR continues to move higher this week and is up substantially after two down days at the beginning of 2013.  After testing the Asian session lows, it began a slow ascent to test the Asian session and yesterday's highs.  With little significant news out of Europe or the UK and Non-Farm Employment Change numbers due out tomorrow, the EUR topped out near yesterday's high for modest gains.

January was a month where levels from last year were tested and re-tested.  Let's see what February brings.

Be very careful if you trade near the Non-Farm Employment Change release tomorrow.  We do not trade on that day of the month.

Back Tuesday.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

A number of the major pairs reached our Target 2 overnight.  I didn't like the setups, so I didn't trade them.   When a currency pair breaks out above the Asian session high or low and runs, it is best to let it go.  "It's never a good idea to chase a trade." - my mentor always said.  He trades in the tens of billions of dollars, so I maintain his words of wisdom in the forefront of my brain, before I take trades.  This rang through loud and clear for the UK session.  "The market will always be there tomorrow..." he would add.

Good luck with your trading.  Stay disciplined and patient.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

With no significant news releases out of Europe or the UK, we await a familiar setup.  The EUR begins the UK session rising but falls short of the Asian session high, puts in a double top, followed by a bearish candle to the downside.  We enter short with a stop above the Asian session high.  This setup just meets our minimum Reward to Risk of 3:1 to our Target 2.  Price begins downward and just over an hour into our trade, price reverses, creating a triple top, before being pushed down hard.  We make it through Target 1 but fall short of Target 2.  As price begins to rise toward Target 1, we close the trade for modest gains.

As we do not trade on Non-Farm Payroll Fridays, we hope to catch some bigger moves in the next couple of days.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions - Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

The EUR made an extended move during the Asian session.  My preference would have been to trade it short if the setup presented itself.  Instead the EUR broke above the Asian session high, then re-tested that level.  Due to the fact that we were so close to the Targets 1 and 2, the minimum Reward to Risk of 3:1 to our Target 2 wasn't there.  This is why I had wanted to see a short trade setup that I could take which would meet the 3:1 minimum.

The pair continued higher making a series of higher lows surpassing our Target 2 level and going up to the Red line indicated on the chart.  Statistically, price is likely to reach our Target 1 and Target 2 in terms of probability.  This however does not mean that it will each day - only that it has a very high probability of reaching our levels and so that is why we determine our Reward to Risk based upon Target 2.  We always protect profits once Target 1 is surpassed.  Statistically, once Target 2 is surpassed, price is much more likely to begin to retrace than to continue its move.  In other words, we don't get greedy past Targets 1 and 2.  On a few occasions during the year, price will go well beyond our Target 2 and possibly double its range, but those days are few and far between and result from an over-reaction to some news event.

The Red line on the chart  today is from the Daily chart.  It is a tool we use to determine where price is likely to go - over time.  It too is a target and when price reaches it, price is statistically likely to pause and re-test it, before either moving upward or downward from it.  This tool is used by some very massive institutional longer term traders.  We are intraday traders but we pay close attention to the levels where massive traders may slam on the breaks for a given day.

It's been a profitable week, but we were unable to find high probability trade setups each day.  We don't compromise our trading style, we are highly selective each day and with each trade.  I recommend all traders  be the same way.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday.

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

The GBP set up for a nice short overnight giving us a Reward to Risk ratio of 4:1 to our Target 2.  It slowly drifted down toward the Asian session low.  It then dropped significantly in advance of the US Employment numbers, after the US traders entered the market.  When this happens, protect your profits before the candle even closes, by adjusting your "take profit" in advance of the news release.

The reaction to the news could easily reverse the market along with your profits and stop you out in a blink.  Choose an acceptable number of pips for your "take profit" level and lock them in.  The news created very little pullback at first and the GBP passed through our Target 1 level - where we closed the trade when it began to pull back.

.

Good luck with your trades and remember the World Economic Forum meetings continue in beautiful Davos Switzerland.  Be very careful with your stop loss placement.

Back  tomorrow,

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions - Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

The EUR has been consolidating since January 11th, but it is still putting in a nice range most days.  There was no major economic news releases for either the EUR or the USD today.  The annual World Economic Forum in Davos Switizerland began today.  Keep stops tight.  The potential for whipsaw movements is there as this conference hosts representatives from over 90 countries.

It took a while to set up but with the EUR showing no signs of upside momentum, we found a short trade.  Eventually it worked out to our advantage.  With a Reward to Risk ratio of 4:1 to our Target 2, patience from yesterday paid off.

We don't give back our profits once Target 1 is hit and yesterday's low proved to be an area where buyers entered the market.

Good luck with your trading and protect your profits as we may encounter a lot of volatility during the WEF conference this week.

Back tomorrow.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions???  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

Walking away from a beautiful setup is hard to do!  Walking away from a setup that doesn't meet one's Reward to Risk ratio requires discipline.  Without discipline a trader will flounder, lose both consistency and confidence.

This beautiful setup required approximately a 25 pip stop loss to ideally net 54 pips.  This did not meet our 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio minimum.  It is always better to come back tomorrow than to break one's rules and get stopped out.

I was taught by the largest currency trader in the world how to trade.  He is also one of the largest commodity traders in the world.  He will pass on a trade that is 2.9:1 Reward to Risk - that's 2 point 9 to 1. That lesson is always foremost in my mind before I take a trade and ingrained in my students.

Back tomorrow.

Good luck with your trading.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions???  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

A familiar pattern set up with the EUR when the UK session got underway.  Price came down and broke through the Asian session low, luring in breakout shorts.  Price pulled back twice before producing an acceptable entry for us.  Our minimum Reward to Risk of 3:1 to our Target 2 was met.  Price pulled back one more time testing our decision making for the short trade then dropped precipitously.

Price dropped through our Target 1 and pulled back hard producing a very wicky candle.  We close on the opening of the next candle to lock in our profits and avoid giving back any more of our profits.

.
All in all a very profitable week.

Back Tuesday.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

No significant economic news until the US session got underway.  The GBP had attempted to move up but had no upside follow through as is evidenced by one wicky candle after another.

After the first round of US economic releases, the GBP fell back below the Asian session highs and gave us an entry short meeting our minimum Reward to Risk ratio of greater than 3:1 to our Target 2.  Price continued downward, but closed well above our Target 1 with a very wicky candle.  With the second round of US news 30 minutes away and the US stockmarkets opening, having given back a dozen pips already from the low, we close the trade at the opening of the next candle.

It continues to be a very good week.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

A familiar pattern set up in the GBP overnight.  After a series of lower highs during the Asian session, the UK traders pushed price down luring in breakout sellers.  Price retraces and rises, and does not take out the most recent Asian session lower swing high.  Price reverses and begins to head lower.

Our Reward to Risk is greater than 3:1 to our Target 2 and we enter short.  The pattern of the of the reversal is a familiar one for my students and can lead to a symmetrical vertical move to the downside.  Price continues down tagging our Target 1, and one candle later price breaks through our Target 2 level.  We close on the next candle.

Excellent week so far.

Know your setups, know your targets,  know your Reward to Risk ratio and practice sound money management

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

EUR offered up a nice setup overnight.  I like to see a big move in the Asian session.  We wait for the news to pass and vigilantly look for an entry.

The UK traders began their session by retracing the Asian session's move lower.  A wicky candle catches our attention as it creates a lower swing high.  We wait for further confirmation and enter short.  Our Reward to Risk meets our minimum of 3:1 to our Target 2.  Price promptly moves in our favour as the session trend is underway.  Price cuts through both yesterday's low and the Asian session low without retesting either.  As price moves closer to our Target 1 we continue to move over "take profit" down.  Price briefly penetrates Target 1 which is an area where we lock in our pips to avoid  giving them back on a reversal. We close the trade as price moves back above Target 1 - locking in a large portion of the trending move.

It's always nice to start the trading week with a large move.  Let's see what the rest of the week brings us.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

Late in the session we catch a nice move to finish the week.  A lot of patience is required to be a successful trader.  We patiently wait for our familiar setups to present themselves and some days there aren't any.  Last night our patience was rewarded.

(I forgot to mark the UK open and close on the chart today.  The UK open is the first candle after the blue channel.  We were out of the trade just as the US stock markets opened.)

A very bullish candle moved price up after the Asian session low was tested.  Although the candle closed right near the Asian session high, and a test retest of that level frequently occurs, the stop was still affordable and met our 3:1 Reward to Risk minimum to our Target 2.  Price moved well above the Asian session high and right through the critical level of 1.3307.  This allowed us to lock in profits in advance of the US Trade Balance release.  When you have profits, protect them.  If there is news pending, and the market reverses you can lose them...in a blink.  Always protect your profits and get the risk out of your trades as soon as possible.

After the entry, had price continued to test and retest the Asian session high as the News approached, it would have been better to take a small loss than risk a spike down to our original stop loss.  Fortunately price moved up in advance and the profits were locked in.  Price continued to our Target 1 but closed with a very wicky candle below it.  We close the trade the next candle so as not to give back pips after Target 1 has been achieved.

Overall a nice conclusion to the week, after remaining out of the market yesterday.

Have a great weekend!

Good luck with your trading.

Back Tuesday...

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

It was all New York today.  I didn't take any trades for 2 reasons.  Firstly, I had computer issues at the beginning of the session and secondly, with the delayed economic major news releases, price was already too close to my targets.

Years ago, it would have frustrated me to have missed a large move... not anymore.  The market isn't going anywhere and it will be there long after I have left this world.  There is always going to be another trade.  Secondly, it was the North American session when the currencies really moved the most and that was after the US News and the EUR was well beyond my targets.

Good luck with your trading!

 Back tomorrow...

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

Both the EUR and GBP looked good overnight.  I preferred the GBP as the setup was clearer to my eyes.  The UK traders pushed price above the Asian session high, luring in breakout longs.  Price pulled down, went up one more candle, followed by a very wicky candle and a lower high... which forecast the set up of the reversal short.

The Reward to Risk was better than 4:1 to our Target 2 level.  Although we never made it to Target 1, we are happy locking in 35 pips of profit with any trade.

Be very aware of last year's levels as the pairs are testing them and will continue to do so.  These are easily seen on a Daily chart. Keep your stops tight and lock in profit as your trade progresses.  Reversal are fast and furious at times, so always lock in some profits and keep moving your "take profit" level in the direction of your trade as it progresses. Remove the risk by moving your stop loss as soon as is prudent to do so and keep protecting your profits while you are in the move.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Send any questions to Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »

Happy New Year!

The EUR looked like a nice trade setup over night.  The Asian session high was a very significant test. (Hint)
The UK traders did not retest the Asian session high and once news was out of the way the EUR set up nicely for a move to the downside.

Our entry allowed us an affordable stop just above the wicky candles earlier in the session.  This met our minimum criteria of 3:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2 level.  Price moved promptly downward not retesting the Asian session low.  When price started to retrace, with over 30 pips of profit, we closed the trade to protect our profits.

Be very aware of significant levels from last year and watch how price reacts to them.

I hope everyone has a very profitable year!

Good luck with your trading.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

Questions???  Michael@privateforexcoaching.com

Read more »