Dollar Remains Lower as Government Impasse Continues and Other Top Forex News

The U.S. dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday, as the government shutdown continued for a fourth day, with no sign of a breakthrough. There was no data released today due to the shutdown. The U.S. Labor Department was scheduled to report today, but said yesterday that Septembers report will not be released as normal and failed to set a new release date. Markets are also concerned how the U.S. political deadlock will impact negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which the U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17.

Speaking overnight, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said the failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling could hurt the global economy and warned U.S. growth could drop below 2% this year. Separately, Standard & Poor’s rating agency said the standoff over funding the government and increasing the borrowing limit is “unlikely to change” S&P’s AA plus rating on U.S. debt. During the U.S. session, the dollar initially fell against the yen, but rallied later in the session, with USD/JPY closing up 0.15% to 97.42.

The yen was further supported after the Bank of Japan held back from adding to its monetary stimulus program after Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the economy was strong enough to weather a sales-tax increase. The news disappointed markets who had been expecting a more aggressive stance from the bank. Meanwhile the euro gave up some of yesterdays gains against the dollar, as investors locked in profits after the single currency rallied to eight-month highs on Thursday.

The single currencies was further hampered after official data showed that producer price inflation in Germany hit a three year low, falling 0.1% in August, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.1% slip the previous month. EUR/USD ended the session down 0.43% to 1.3560. In Canada, the Loonie strengthened after the release of data which showed that the Ivey purchasing managers’ index ticked up to 51.9 in September, from a reading of 51.0 the previous month, confounding expectations for a rise to 53.0. USD/CAD edging down 0.35% to 1.0296.

Elsewhere, the greenback was broadly lower against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, with AUD/USD gaining 0.42% to 0.9434 and NZD/USD rising 0.45% to 0.8330. - See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/10/04/dollar-remains-lower-government-impasse-continues-top-forex-news/#sthash.z8Qp3wZs.dpuf
 

Top Trade Idea For October 4th, 2013 – EUR/AUD

EUR/AUD “Could Fluctuate”

Are any other traders sick of analysts whose view is that a currency “could fluctuate”? When you read or hear “on the one hand…..but on the other hand” the response has to be “thanks Einstein”, because what the analyst is really saying is that they have no clue, or no cojones – or both. However, traders don’t need a directional view to trade where they recognise a good reward to risk set up. The EUR/AUD 4-hour chart is a current example:


Traders will select their own indicator or signal, but I like to keep it simple. Here’s a 186 pip trading range, with a clearly defined inflection point at 1.4450. Frankly, I’m hoping EUR/AUD stays range bound for weeks, as every time it crosses the midpoint it fulfils my trading plan – a clearly defined signal, with a tight stop and a higher reward to risk ratio. With the pair breaking below 1.4450, I sell at 1.4445, with a stop loss at 1.4464, target 1.4375 (not too greedy).

Reward to risk is 70/19, or better than 3.5/1. The real beauty is if this trade pays off, and the support at 1.4366 holds, there’s another trade as EUR/AUD crosses or fails at the inflection point at 1.4450. Happy days! - See more at: http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/10/04/top-trade-idea-october-4th-2013-euraud/#sthash.IZX0Texw.dpuf
 
The JPY had a very active Asian session and began to pull back hard in the UK session.  After it bounced at the previous day's Asian session low (Hint) an entry is found.  The stop loss was 14 pips and the idea was to get to the Asian session high for a retest.  As price moves up, we remove any risk from the trade and protect some profits.  This is critical to your trading success and peace of mind as a trader.  When price bounced off our Target 2, we close the trade to lock in our gains.  Price subsequently tests the Asian session high without us.


The AUD set up nicely 15 minutes after the JPY entry, for a nice short to its Asian session low.   Once the JPY started to move up, a theme of USD strength was apparent and the majors moved accordingly with the exception of the CHF which unusually had a very quiet session.

In trading the 15 minute chart, stops of 15 - 25 pips are my norm at current ranges.  Any trade setup requiring a stop loss of less than 15 pips is very desirable.  When trading ranges expand again, a stop loss of 30 pips is possible, but I haven't had one that large for some time.  When price starts moving in your favour, remember to protect some profit in the event of a sudden reversal.  Never fight the market - you will lose.  Study it!  Go with it - never against it.  If it moves against your analysis, your stop loss is your friend.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
An overall theme of USD weakness was evident throughout today's trading.  The EUR, GBP and CHF took off without us.  With the NZD having a much larger negative Trade Balance than expected, I was curious to see if I could find a reversal trade and ride it to the Asian session high or higher.

The pair eventually set up - consistent with the USD weakness theme that prevailed.  An entry long is taken - allowing for a 17 pip stop loss and a potential 81 pips to our Target 2.  This is a very attractive reward for the risk.  The first level to get through was the Asian session high and alas we couldn't do it.  At the close of UK session, we exit for a modest gain.


It's frustrating seeing some pairs move right to our targets without being able to find an entry, but discipline is key to trading success.  One of my mentors always says, "master your tools, master yourself".

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
A fairly light news session to begin our trading week.  The JPY moved down after an initial surge higher as the UK traders trapped breakout longs and stopped them out.  After a bearish reversal candle, and lower high, a short entry is taken.  The stop loss is 13 pips for a possible 74 pips to our Target 2.  This a great Reward to Risk ratio and stops of 15 pips or less are very attractive to us.

Price moved down but stopped short of the Asian session low and the trade is closed after the wicky candle reversal.  Price pulled back one more time making a third lower high for the session, then dropped once again without us.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The AUD continues down retracing the post FOMC reaction.

Once again as the UK session gets underway, there are no buyers above the Asian session high.  Price begins to move down and penetrates the Asian session low.  We wait for a retracement and find an entry with a Reward to Risk of greater than 3:1 to our Target 2.  There is no significant US economic news that we need to be concerned about.  Price makes its way down to our Target 1, where it bounces and we close the trade.

Grain farmers in the US years ago are attributed with discovering what is known as the 3 Drives Pattern.  This is a frequently reoccurring pattern where we see 3 waves, either to the high or low on a chart.  The idea for trading it is to catch the second wave which is often the largest of the 3 drives.  It can be visible on all time frames and is fun to recognize and trade.  It is by no means crystal clear and does not always work, but it can be fun to spot.


Whatever your trading style may be... find your edge, keep it simple, manage risk and be consistent.

Good luck with your trading and enjoy your weekend!

Back on Tuesday if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
After the FOMC announcement, the AUD moved up and today it moved back down.  It's good to be aware of the fundamentals, but it's more important to be able to read price, and exercise sound money management.  This involves limiting risk with small stop losses and ideally a Reward to Risk ratio of 2:1 or better - depending on the time of day.

Looking at this particular setup, it was clear that you did not want to be a buyer above the Asian session highs.  There were only sellers above, and after 3 attempts to move higher, price dropped.  With such a large reactive move after the FOMC announcement, I thought the move down would penetrate the pre-FOMC Asian session before stagnating.

It was not long ago that the AUD was worth 1.06 to the USD and even 1.08.  It has a pretty good trading range at the moment, so I will be keeping my eyes on it.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

 
The trading in advance of the long awaited September FOMC meeting has had currencies in very tight trading ranges.  The FOMC market buzz is for the tapering of the total monthly purchases of USTs and MBSs to be rduced from $85B down to $75B a month,  and remaining dovish on interest rates.  Traders are also talking about the possibility that the FED may adjust the threshold rate for unemployment lower.

I was not expecting any trades to set up, but the AUD looked attractive.  The idea was to take it short and try to reach the Asian session low.  It was unlikely that the ranges would be anything but muted.  It was a painfully slow boring session and by removing the risk... and more or less waiting to see what would happen, a very small gain is ultimately realized.


The pairs are likely to be active after the FOMC announcement.  Let's look for some opportunities after London re-opens.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

 
NZD moved up nicely after initially testing the breakout traders' conviction.  As price moved up with news out of the way, the initial stop loss is moved up to plus one.  As price continues to rise, profits are protected by structure.  Price moves through both our targets in one candle.  As price pulls back, the trade is closed at Target 2.


Be aware of FOMC tomorrow during the US session.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
A quiet news session early on... followed by an active US news session.  After the Preliminary U of M Consumer Sentiment figure was released, the NZD reversed and an entry short is taken.  Price penetrated the Asian session highs, but bounced at the session multi-pivot line.  As price indicated there were buyers there, we exit as price climbs to the Asian session high - for a modest gain.


Trading is a very difficult profession to master.  Those that master it, have worked very hard to get there!

Please do not be fooled by internet marketers that sell video courses, robots or get rich quick forex trading schemes.  You will lose your money!   I have numerous students that have spent many thousands of dollars, enormous amounts of time, on so-called highly rated courses that don't work.  I went down a similar path in my first few years of trading.  It wasn't until I was taught by one of the largest traders in the world, that I learned how to focus on what really counts in trading and what to avoid.

Professional and institutional traders know that 90%+ of retail traders will lose their trading accounts in their quest to learn how to trade.  If you learn what the big guys focus on, how they trade - the institutional tricks and awarenesses,  you will be on your way to successful trading.  There are not short cuts, it takes knowledge,  lots of practice and a certain type of personality.  If you are serious about learning how to trade...please contact me.  I will try very hard to make you a profitable trader!

Good luck with your trading!

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The JPY set up nicely after the US Unemployment figure was released.  The JPY has been making a series of lower highs and double-topped early in the UK session.   It traded in a fairly tight range awaiting the US news.  Once the news was out of the way, it set up nicely allowing us a 2:1 Reward to Risk entry to our Target 2.  Price re-tested the Asian session lows once before dropping to Target 2 where we exit the trade.


There were other nice trade setups too... so I hope everyone had a profitable and productive session.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
The JPY is a pair that I haven't traded in a long time.  It's a major pair and traders will find that it moves well in most sessions.  A European bank trader has been sharing with me a model used for trading the JPY.  It appears to work very well, so I'm back looking for setups in the JPY once again.

After a series of lower highs a short is taken, with a 17 pip stop loss above structure.  Price moves down and bounces off the Asian session low and makes a third lower high for the session.  Price drops almost to our Target 1 and begins to retrace.  After giving up 10 pips on this bounce, we close the trade.


If you're a student of mine and you want to know how many European banks are trading this pair, contact me and I will give you the details.  All our usual rules apply, but there is a trick.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
A very light news session, but we were able to find a trade on the NZD.  The NZD and the AUD both reversed upward at the same time.  The Kiwi set up nicely for us as it bounced off a technical level allowing us to enter long with an affordable stop loss in place beneath the Asian session low.  This met our minimum criterion of a  3:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  Once price rose above yesterday's high, we raised our stop loss thereby removing all risk from the trade.  As price continued slowly to rise, we raised our profit stop to protect ourselves and we are ultimately closed by the market.


Last week was a very slow week for us as we do not trade on NFP Fridays and the trade setups were less than desirable most days.

The trading ranges should pick up this month as the volume increases.

On a side note, my new computer died on the weekend and few things are as frustrating to a trader as a malfunctioning computer or a loss of internet connection.  I will be on my backup until I get the new one back.  Make sure you back up your data regularly, as I will be inconvenienced by thinking I could get away with doing it less frequently due to the fact that I had a new state of the art computer.  Technology failures happen and it is best to have a backup plan for when they do.  Always have the phone number for the trading desk you deal with - in the event that you lose your internet connection.  It is very stressful to be in a trade and unable to see price move.  Always trade with a stop loss!!!

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
A long lackluster session with a very late EUR trade setting up.  The EUR attempted to get above the Asian session high but was unable to stay there.  It finally pushed hard above - well into the US session with all the economic news behind us.  A stop loss under structure enabled us to have a better than 2:1 Reward to Risk ratio... which is our minimum once the US session is underway.

As price moved up we locked in profit and eliminated any risk in the trade.  With very little time left in our trading day, we progressively moved our profit stop higher.  Price missesd our Target 1 by a pip.  We tighten our profit stop allowing a bit of wiggle room, hoping for a final push higher before the UK session ends.  Price came down and we are closed out for modest gains.


Trading ranges have been quite tight recently, but we anticipate they will increase as September moves on.

Good luck with your trading!   Be patient, disciplined, exercise sound money management and keep your stops tight.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
Overall Friday was a light news session lacking high impact potential economic releases.   The first part of the UK session was lacklustre, but as traders reacted to disappointing US figures, the EUR began to move down.  Price moved slowly down re-testing yesterday's low before dropping to our Target 1, where we exit... when price bounces above.


Summer draws to an end and Monday is a holiday in North America.  It's been a good summer for trading and we anticipate trading ranges will increase by the middle of  September.

Enjoy your weekend!

If you would like to learn some institutional tricks and secrets to trading, please enquire by email about my course.

Back Tuesday if can find a trade.

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com




 
The majors didn't offer many attractive setups to my eyes during the UK session.  A series of lower highs made for an appealing setup in the EUR, but he gains were modest.  As price reversed to re-test the Asian session lows once more, we are closed - protecting our profits.

One thing a trader never wants to do, is let an acceptable level of profit get away and  turn into a loss.  In this case, we had a wicky candle which warned us to tighten and continue to tighten our profit stop.

 
Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
An active session as the UK traders returned from a long weekend.  Initially the UK traders pushed the CHF down and quickly reversed it with the German IFO Business Climate release, but the Asian session high is not challenged.  Price fades but cannot get above the Asian session high again.  A triple top forms and the US traders begin by reversing the market down.  Although I hesitate to enter trades in the middle of the Asian session range, this set up was too convincing not to, and only required a 15 pip stop.  Price moved down and just missed going through our Target 1.  As price bounced at this level and ran back up forming a wicky candle - coupled with major US news pending...the trade is closed.


The EUR also had a good trade set up, but I didn't like it as much as the CHF.

Off to a good start this week.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The GBP had economic news to digest, then made its move lower.  It's always best to wait until the news is out of the way and look for the trending move to begin.  Let price tell you when it's underway.  Do not trade based upon the economic news outcome and do not chase price.

After the news candle, we waited and look for signs.  After 2 wicky candles a very bearish engulfing candle followed.  Sellers were in charge and an entry is taken with a stop above the post news candle spike.  The more conservative stop is above the news candle spike high, but not necessary.  If the trend is not down, I want out just above the bearish engulfing candle double top.

Price moves down making lower highs...then pauses at the Asian session high - no surprise there.  We protect some profit and remove all risk from the trade.  Price moves down and tests the Asian session lows - no surprise there.  Price moves further down cutting right through yesterday's low - okay a surprise there, but no complaints.  We close the trade at Target 2.

Our targets are very accurate and I have used them for years.  Do they work every day?  No...but they are fundamental to my strategy and when the market is trending, they are awesome.


It's been a very good week for trading.

Good luck with your trading and have a wonderful weekend!

Back Tuesday if we can find a trade.

If you are looking for some private one-on-one coaching, please contact me for details.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The UK traders pushed the EUR down and the US traders pushed it right back up.

Positive economic news numbers out of Germany and the EUR moves down.  Negative unemployment numbers out of the US, and the EUR moves up...hmmm.  I hope as traders that you do not trade based upon the economic news numbers themselves... but you must be aware of the economic news releases pending and how significant they may be to the market in terms of potential volatility.

After the news...regardless of the outcome, the intraday trends tend to set up.  Note how price could not stay above the Asian session high.  With news out of the way, the EUR started its move down.  Read what price is telling you at these critical areas.  Wait to be convinced of direction, and if the Reward to Risk meets your minimum criterion...evaluate the trade.  In this case, we can place a stop above the spike high and have a greater than 3:1 RR to our Target 2.  As price moves down and goes through the Asian session low, we anticipate that more often than not, it will want to retest this level or in today's case, yesterday's low as well.

Price drops further and closes at a very critical area forming a wicky candle.  This bounce back up is our clue to close.  

*Note in the chart the highlighted areas where price sticks around and retests.  These levels are very important to institutional traders, so it's wise to heed what price is telling us at them.


Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com

 
To trade or not to trade in advance of the FOMC meeting minutes?

The NZD has been trending down all week and after rising in the second hour of the UK trading session, it could not stay above the Aug 13th low.  As it tried, sellers entered and the previous hour's range is completely taken out by a bearish candle.  This was an attractive setup and met our minimum Reward to Risk ratio of 3:1 to our Target 2. Price dropped and the trade was closed in advance of the US Existing Home Sales number... as price went through Target 2.


FOMC meeting minutes will be out shortly and the trading is likely to become active for the remainder of the week, as there is significant economic news pending each day.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
A very light news and lackluster trading session until the US session got underway.  After the Prelim U of M Consumer Sentiment figure was released, the EUR began to drop.  An entry short is found as price closes below yesterday's high with a 3:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  Price settled at the Asian session lows and the trade is closed.


It's been another very good week of summer trading.

Back on Tuesday if can find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Enjoy your weekend!

If you are looking for personalized one-on-one coaching, please contact me for details of my 6 week course.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
Both the AUD and NZD were fairly active during the Asian session.  My preference when this happens is to look for the momentum to reverse and find an entry.   The AUD had difficulty staying above the Asian session high...meaning sellers were entering above.   After the second close above, a reversal sets up with a bearish candle which closes below the range of the previous 2 hours.  Price moves down where it consolidates just below yesterday's high.  Our profit stop is moved down to just above this level.  Major US economic news is pending and we await the market's reaction.  The worst case scenario is we are stopped out for a profitable trade.  Price drops after the news and we close the trade on the next candle as price moves up to our Target 1.


I like the AUD and NZD pairs.  We can usually find a trade setup that we like most weeks.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
An almost identical setup to Friday's trade with more pips as price moved closer to our targets.  We don't trade Mondays, but the past 3 sessions, the EUR has given a very clear 3 Drives pattern.  Today's setup was 3 pips short of our desired 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio to our Target 2, but the pattern of the setup was the same as Friday's...so why not go for it?  Trading is not easy but when the setups are so clear, it makes trading a lot easier.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www,privateforexcoaching.com
 
A familiar pattern set up for the EUR in another light economic news session.  The UK traders began their session by quickly pushing price below the Asian session low, inducing breakout shorts, then pushed the market higher to run stops.  They then completed the "wash and rinse"... doing it a second time.  A very wicky candle at the Asian session high was created as sellers entered pushing price back down.  With enough orders accumulated, the trending move down for the session was underway.

We enter short above the Asian session low anticipating this area to be tested and retested.  Seldom do we move right through it without a retest, but it's wonderful when it happens.  Price moves down, but unfortunately does not make it to our targets before the UK session ends.  This was a nice trade setup with a greater than 4:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  We thought price would make it down to yesterday's low before the session ended... but it wasn't to be.  We did have a nice 3 Drives patterns before our exit.


Another good week of summer trading done.  Ranges have tightened up the past couple of weeks, so we are happy when we can find a high probability trade set up meeting our R:R criterion.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we can find a trade.

If you are having problems finding your edge or with trading confidence, don't hesitate to contact me regarding my course.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
NZD moves higher in the US session as traders go long above yesterday's high.   The Kiwi set up nicely making a series of higher lows.  We are willing to accept a 2:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2 once the US session begins.  We look for a 3:1 or better R/R during the early UK part of the session... before the US traders are active. Once the US session is underway this becomes a 2:1 R/R because we only have 4 hours left.



It is never a good idea to be greedy in trading and we exit at our Target 2 level.

Good luck with your trading and always be very selective in choosing your setups.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com




 
An overall theme of USD weakness is evident in the charts today.  The NZD set up nicely an hour before the US traders began their day.   The NZD made 3 attempts but was unable to close below the Asian session low. A bullish candle followed and an entry is taken with a 13 pip stop loss.  As the US session was about to begin, the stop loss is moved up to plus one pip - in the event that US traders push the market back down.

Price begins to move up after a brief pullback.  The pair gains momentum rising through the Asian session high and yesterday's high, before pausing at our Target 1.  We give it a second chance to move and stay above Target 1 , but as price dips below it, we close the trade to protect our profits. Price subsequently makes it to Target 2 without us, before pulling back at the UK Close.


Trading has been tricky of late and this is the first trade that we have been comfortable with in the past week.  It is always best to be patient and disciplined in trading.  If the familiar high probability setups are not there...it's best to sit on one's hands.  Much of Europe is on holiday this month, so if the trading is a little slow or the charts appear to be less clear, it may be due to summer holidays.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The GBP set up shortly after the US traders began their day.  There was a clear rejection at yesterday's low as sellers entered pushing price down.  After a second close below the Asian session low, an entry is taken. Price tested the Asian session low once more before dropping to its daily low.  As the CB Consumer Confidence news was about to be released, price continued to drop.  We protect a good part of the move in advance of the news, which subsequently resulted in moving price to our Target 2... where we exit.


A nice start to our shortened week... as we do not trade Non-Farm Employment Fridays.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
The EURGBP set up nicely for us and produced a favourite reoccurring pattern that we look for while in a trade.  After  putting in a wicky candle low, we patiently awaited further signs that price would move up. With a very affordable stop loss, we enter the trade and vigilantly watch price as it reacts to each of the levels marked on the chart.  Price continues upward before finally stalling at the Asian session highs.  We are taken out as it dips below the Asian session high.  A trade on this pair is currently worth approximately 1.53 pips compared to a USD cross - so we are happy with the outcome which completes this subdued trading week.


I hope your trading week was both enjoyable and profitable!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Enjoy your weekend!

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com

For more Tips and Tricks contact me regarding my course - Michael@privateforexcoaching.com
 
The CHF set up nicely for us after the European economic news was out of the way.  It clearly had difficulty staying above yesterday's high and began to drop.  When price went below the Asian session low, approaching the session low, with the US traders about to start their day, we tightened the profit stop to lock in 25 pips of profit. US Unemployment and Core Durable goods numbers were both due out in 30 minutes too.  As the US traders began, they abruptly reversed the market - which is very common and we are closed.

Always look left on the chart to see the relevant areas where price stalls or reverses.  When I learned how to trade, my mentor used to say...."always look left to be right".  If you learn how to look at a chart the way the largest institutional  traders do...you will be able to focus on the areas that they pay attention to, and be ready to enter or exit the market.  There are a number of tricks to this, but with practice it becomes routine.  If you can make good entries and remove the risk from your trades quickly... either when you can protect profit by moving your profit stop above/below structure or lock in some profit because price is showing signs of reversing...you can trade stress free.


Good luck with your trading!

There is no major economic news items remaining for this week.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
Another very light economic news session with a mild USD weakness tone so far this week - hence the gold talk.  The UK traders moved the CHF up and the US traders bring it right back down.  We were hoping for a larger move either direction, but with little news so far this week, it didn't happen.

As the US traders start to bring the CHF down, an entry is taken when normally there would be lots of US economic news.  The stop loss is relatively inexpensive at 13 pips and with our Target 2,  80 pips away, it is hard to resist this trade.  However buyers enter a significant technical level in advance of the Asian session low and we exit.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
A very light news session to end the week and an overall subdued trading session - with tighter ranges being put in by most of the majors.  The GBP set up requiring a stop loss of 19 pips for a potential 70 pips of reward.  The setup is a familiar one, but the reward didn't pan out.  The UK traders pushed price above the Asian session highs twice..each time pulling it back.  After the second pullback we enter long hoping to get above the 1.53 Figure, but it wasn't to be.  Price seemed content to dance with the Asian session highs in a tight range for the remainder of the session.  Had they given up the 1.5265 area - the 1.53 figure was realistic.


Enjoy your weekend!

Back on Tuesday if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
Modest gains in CHF before Mr. Bernanke's speech today.  The key here was to find a comfortable trade setup, keep the stops tight and get out (to be conservative) before Mr. Bernanke's speech - which can cause enormous volatility.  The CHF began to move up with its inverse...the EUR moving down at exactly the same time...confirming the trade.  The long on the CHF required a 15 pip stop loss and in retrospect the EUR was the better trade opportunity.

The Asian session high appeared daunting for price to close above until the positive US economic news numbers pushed it above.  Not wanting to give back any more pips than we have to, we close the trade in advance of Mr. Bernanke's impact.


Good luck with your trading!

Always be aware of pending news and keep your stops tight.

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com








 
A session of USD weakness followed the economic news releases.  The CHF and GBP (not shown) set up for very nice trades.  After the European news, it was clear that the CHF could not close above the Asian session highs (hint).  Price dropped to near the Asian session low which set up our trade.  We had further confluence with a tool we use and with a stop just above the session high, we had a greater than 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio to our Target 2.  As price dropped we remove the risk from the trade and lock in profit - should the market reverse.  As price showed signs of stalling, we exit the trade giving back a half dozen pips.


This was a very identifiable trade setup with our methodology.

When I first began trading, I heard that summer trading was not productive.  This is an absolute myth!  There is approximately $4 trillion of currencies traded each day.   If the charts seem erratic...like Monday trading, I wouldn't recommend trading, but if you have a sound method and high probability trade setups present themselves, then why not take them?  Conversely, if you don't have a sound method to identify high probability trade setups and know how to exercise sound money management, you will likely lose your account with a 90+% probability. This is a statistic that all brokerages know too well.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
GBP produces some fairly quick pips with USD showing strength.  Very light news session in advance of the US session commencing.  The GBP has had an increasingly large trading range recently.  This trade setup had the makings of a much larger move than what manifested.

After making a series of lower highs, the pair began to move up and down as the UK traders took charge.  After breakout shorts had been tested twice, an engulfing bearish candle closes below the Asian session low.   A better than 5:1 Reward to Risk ratio to our Target 2 made for a very attractive short opportunity. The trade quickly went in our favour and looked like it had lots of downside potential.  As a wicky candle forms - taking back 10 pips, the trade is closed for a relatively quick profit to end our trading week.


Overall a nice week of summer trading with some very recognizable trading patterns.

Good luck with your trading!

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
AUD moves down once the US traders begin their session.  Very little economic news in advance of Mr. Bernanke speaking and the FOMC minutes due out shortly.  This will have the potential for extreme volatility.

The AUD put in 2 lower highs early in the first half of the session and proceeded downward.  A modest ranging session until the US traders joined in.

A trade short with a greater than 3:1 Reward to Risk ratio to our Target 2  is found.  This is very attractive at this time of day.  Once we see a wicky candle form, we tighten our profit stop and as price begins to find buyers, we exit the trade to lock in our profits.


Always be aware of the news and session changes when you're trading!

Good luck with your trades!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
EURGBP produces a greater than 4:1 Reward to Risk ratio setup following the UK economic news.  The pair explodes upward after the UK economic news is released. When this type of reaction occurs it frequently (not always) will provide an opportunity for a reversal move.

In this case, there were a confluence (not shown) of signs that the pair was topping out.   My students should be able to recognize at least 4.  Trading is an extremely difficult occupation, but some trade setups really stand out for the discerning eye.  This comes from experience, practice and having a high probability methodology - there are no short cuts.

This setup had a classic reversal pattern and a short is taken with a small stop above structure.  As price comes down, we want to get through yesterday's high, the Asian session high, the Asian session low and make it to our Target 2.  Price is very obliging, but as it bounces off Target 1, we exit the trade very pleased.


A great start to the week!

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
 

A large move down for the AUD during the Asian session after the RBA rate statement.

A favourite pattern set up during the UK session.  As the AUD continued to set lower highs, a short entry is taken.  This trade is greater than 4:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  With a stop just above the reversal high, we first attempt to make it through the Asian session low.  Price eventually closes below it, then reverses with a wicky candle.  When price begins to move up and closes bullishly above our Target 1, we exit the trade.




NZD offered a very similar trade set up too.

Lots of news in the US session tomorrow, in advance of the Fourth of July holiday on Thursday.  NFP is on Friday and we choose to not trade that day - so it will be a shortened week.

Good luck with your trading!

Always be careful around trading near major economic news releases.

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
UK traders move the EUR up and the US traders move the EUR down!  A fairly light economic news session ends the first half of the trading year.

The EUR reversed off its session high with a big wicky candle.  After the close of the next candle a short trade sets up.  An initial stop loss half way up the wick, creates a better than 3:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  Price penetrates through the Asian session high, before testing yesterday's high leaving another wicky candle.  By adjusting our stop loss to plus 1 pip, we remove the risk from the trade.  Price then drops to the Asian session low and pauses.  We move the profit stop to just above the early session lows.  Price continues to drop further through our Target 1 - almost making it to Target 2.  Once it does penetrate our second target, the profit stop is adjusted and the trade is closed as price retraces upward.  Price subsequently bottoms for the session near yesterday's low - to end the first half of trading year.


Looking forward to the second half of 2013.

Enjoy the weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
For the second day in a row the AUD sells off in the US session at the same time, which today corresponded with the second round of US economic news.  As the Pending Home Sales number is released the AUD began to rise and is quickly reversed by sellers - in a zone which had been evident all session.

A short trade is taken as price retreats below the previous candle's low.  Two tools that we use made this trade setup very attractive.  As price comes down, risk is removed from the trade and profits are protected by moving the stop down as shown.  Price is unable to close below the Asian session low, and we are subsequently closed just above it - when price hits our profit stop.


Let's see what Friday brings to conclude the month.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 


 
The CHF had the makings of a good trade, but the momentum faded quickly. Well into the US session, a long setup is found with a better than 3:1 Reward to Risk to our Target 2.  We enter the trade with ninety minutes left in the UK trading session. The trade moves up and after the European traders finished their day, the momentum appeared to leave the market.  We are closed when price hits our "profit stop" for 20 pips.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
NZD set up for a short trade after the UK economic news releases, and in advance of  ECB President Draghi speaking.  After the UK news, the EUR, AUD & NZD turned down and the CHF turned up.  After a vertical move up when the UK traders began their day, the NZD came down vertically making for a quick trade.  Although it would have been nice to have reached the Asian session lows before President Draghi spoke...it wasn't to be and we don't like to give back our profits... so we exit the trade after the wicky candle as price begins to retrace.


Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The AUD produced one of my favourite setups.  When the AUD couldn't take out the Asian session high after an active Asian session, we enter and attempt to get to the low of the Asian session.  As price moves lower we take the risk out of the trade and begin to lock in profits.

Ideally we want the AUD to drop to our Target 2 level, but it must make it through the Asian session low, yesterday's low, and Target 1 before that can happen.  Price is likely to test and retest the Asian session low and yesterday's low before dropping further.  As it approaches the Asian session low, buyers enter.

I am very opposed to giving back too many pips of profits, so instead of waiting for price to go a few more pips to the Asian low, as it begins to pull back, I lock in 35 pips...which is still a nice move to capture to end the week.


It's been an interesting week with the market digesting Mr. Bernanke's FOMC remarks.

Enjoy your weekend!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The FOMC statement yesterday created lots of anticipated volatility.  This was followed by more subdued markets today - despite lots of economic news releases.

The CHF set up nicely for us, but it had a lot of difficulty penetrating yesterday's high and the Asian session high.  Once it did... buyers entered the market pushing it back up as evidenced by the candles with the long lower wicks.  If price can't go down, and long wicks form, be very careful... as price is likely to reverse.  Coupled with more economic news releases and pending stock market openings and  it's best to protect any profits or get out of the short trade.

I was taught years ago...that if price doesn't do what its suppose to do - GET OUT of the trade!

I like to enter trades with either a minimum Reward to Risk ratio of either 3:1 to our Target 2 during the UK session, or  2:1 R/R once the US session has commenced.  I also like to remove risk from a trade as quickly as possible.    By moving one's initial stop loss to plus 1 pip, risk has been removed from the trade and the worst that can happen - is the market takes you out for plus 1 pip.

As price had difficulty closing below yesterday's high, the stop loss is moved to plus 1 pip, once the wicky candle appeared.  With more US news approaching, the profit stop is moved to plus 5 pips.  As price seems to have difficulty moving lower and giving back pips is never fun, the trade is closed as it retraces above the previous wicky candle low to lock in 25 pips.



Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we can find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com




 
Lots of volatility following lots of economic news and overall the news has been positive.  Following the US economic news, buyers entered the EUR creating an opportunity for a long trade.  Price quickly moved up stalling near yesterday's high.  The profit stop is moved just under the Asian session high, which is not subsequently tested.  Wicky candles appear at the session high, and the take profit level is adjusted upward.  Price pushes through our Target 1 level easily then pulls back, so we close the trade.   The subsequent candle goes right to our Target 2...without us.


FOMC statement tomorrow during the US session.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The EURGBP tends to move slowly and it doesn't have the range of the majors most days, but it can be a very tradeable pair.  It tends to be less volatile than the majors too and at times trends very nicely.

This trade set up producing a familiar entry.  The pair moves a few pips against us for the first hour, then begins its descent - stair stepping down.  We close the trade just above the Asian session low as the UK traders end their week.  Price subsequently moves down to our Target 1 without us.  The move was modest, but each pip is worth more than 1.5 pips of a USD cross... so not a bad trade to end the week.


Good luck with your trading!

Back Tuesday if we find a trade.

Enjoy your weekend!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The EUR moved up nicely once the US session got underway.  This trade set up with a better than 4:1 Reward to Risk ratio to our Target 2.  At this time of day, we will take a 2:1 R/R... so this trade setup was very appealing.
 
After the first candle, it didn't look nearly as good.  Fortunately by the third candle after entry, it was up and away, closing bullishly into the Asian session.  After price tested and retested the Asian session highs, it found a little more strength which fizzled with a wicky candle closing near the swing high from earlier in the session.  We exit the trade as price penetrates the earlier swing high.


There were other nice trade setups this session (not shown) - the week has been very productive and we are only mid week.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The GBP chopped sideways most of the session until the US traders began their day and like the EUR it began to climb with USD weakness.  After 2 very bullish candles an entry is found with a stop below the Asian session lows.  This stop is progressively moved up and the trade is closed at Target 2.  As price began to climb, it hit the Asian session high before backing off and closing at yesterday's high.  We removed the risk from the trade by placing our "take profit" just a bit above our entry.  Price got a second wind and after stalling at the Asian session high once more, it pushed up to our Target 2.


Good luck with your trading this week!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com
 
The charts of the majors have been somewhat erratic for trading this week...possibly due to the US NFP pending release tomorrow.  It's always best to look for high probability setups and  keep stop losses small.  I always like to find a setup on a chart that makes sense to me and allows for a modest stop loss.  The EURGBP looked like the best option during the UK session and resulted in a modest gain.


Tomorrow is NFP Friday and we don't trade that session, so we will be back on Tuesday if we find a trade.

Good luck with your trading!

Michael www.privateforexcoaching.com



 
The CHF was fairly subdued before the US ADP Non-Farm Employment number was released.  As it did not take out the Asian session high and made a series of lower highs, an entry short is found.  Unfortunately, the market went sideways for a couple of hours and all we could do was remove the risk from the trade by placing the stop loss at plus 1 pip.

The news release created a sudden drop through both yesterday's low and the Asian session low, before buyers entered the market and price reversed.  We exit promptly.


Always be careful trading around major economic news releases.  Employment figures for the US tend to create lots of volatility in both directions.  In trading, as in Newtonian physics, this is known as Action Reaction.

Good luck with your trading!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com


 
Very large moves yesterday followed by more subdued moves today.  The NZD set up after the US session got underway.  The NZD just made our 2:1 Reward to Risk ratio minimum to our Target 2.  We like a 3:1 R/R during the UK session, but with a maximum of 4 hours of trading time left in our trading day, once the US session is underway - we will take 2:1 R/R minimum.

Once the US Trade Balance economic news was released, the NZD began to move down and an entry is found on the next candle. Although the trade did not progress to our Target 2, we are able to protect our gains to Target 1 and exit the trade for a modest profit to begin our trading week.


This will be a short trading week for us, as we do not trade NFP Fridays.

Good luck with your trades!

Back tomorrow if we find a trade.

Michael  www.privateforexcoaching.com





 
 
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